Questions like when and how will the pandemic end?
When the lockdowns are done haphazardly and disjointedly, questions arise as to whether they should continue.
Should the lockdown continue as it has failed to suppress the virus spread or should containment measures be eased as concerns swirl over new variants?
It has been a long drawn battle against the Covid-19 pandemic for more than 18 months, businesses and people are battle weary, pandemic fatigued and in despair. “Open shut” containment measures have caused deeper scarring effects on the economy, households, individuals and businesses.
Malaysia’s green shoot economic recovery path is disrupted.
A deep concern is that the longer the restricted containment measures, the economic damage would be long-lasting and irreversible, as well as having far-reaching social implications on the society.
The economic blows on some sectors would take years to recover, the poorest and most vulnerable will bear a disproportionately high share of the burden.
Small businesses as well as the small and medium enterprises have drained their cash reserves and have difficulties to restart.
Countries face a trade off between health and the economy in their response to Covid-19 either through a lockdown or no lockdown.
The lockdowns have a considerable negative effect on economic activity due to the supply and demand destruction as well as stalled production.
Countries that have introduced lockdowns early when the number of cases were still low, had reported considerable fewer infections compared with countries that implemented lockdowns when cases were already high.
Besides, tight and shortlived lockdowns would be superior to contain infections compared with mild but prolonged measures.
Research by the International Monetary Fund shows that the economic impact from a lockdown is about equal to the effects of people voluntarily social distancing when they are worried about the higher rates of infection.
There is now growing narrative that it’s time to change the saving lives livelihood strategy from pandemic to endemic.
We may never be able to control this pandemic outbreak, which saw new virulent variants spreading fast in the community, and be forced to live with the virus for good.
Singapore and the United Kingdom are planning to live with Covid-19.
The path out of the pandemic is seen as a test case for other nations as they ramp up their vaccination programmes.
It is a critical time for our nation now a tight race between the speed of new variant generation and the speed of vaccination. The National Recovery Plan has laid out four phases of transition to safe reopening and returning to normalcy.
A three-pronged strategy: speeding up vaccination, the three-T approach (tracing-testing-treating) and insolation are equally important to win the race of taking Malaysia out of the pandemic.
As of July 31, 6.5 million people (19.9% of total population) have completed two doses of the vaccines while 13.5 million people (41.3% of total population) have one dose.
The phase two vaccination target is 10% to 40%; 40% to 60% in phase three and more than 60% under phase four.
Our estimate indicates that the 40% of total population having two doses will be met by end-August and 60% by end September 2021 respectively.
The world data for the Covid-19 countries showed that upon reaching a certain threshold of vaccination between 30% and 40% it provides protection against the virus infection to ensure that people do not get terribly sick and hospitalised although the number of cases may still be high.
The number of new cases and deaths will start to decline upon reaching 30% of fully vaccinated people in countries, including Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
In balancing between saving lives and livelihood during the first wave of the Covid-19 health pandemic last year, a total lockdown was widely implemented in many countries to curb the virus while sacrificing the economy in the short-term.
Billions in relief and financial assistance as well as stimulus spending were rolled out to limit the economic and financial damage.This time round, we observe that most countries have discarded lockdowns as the prolonged pandemic impact and frequent lockdowns had inflicted scarring effects on the economy.
While saving lives is a priority, the scalable disruptions and damages on businesses and daily economic activities have a negative feedback loop on many people’s livelihood, resulting in hardships on the underserved and vulnerable groups.
It is simply not sustainable to lock down, and will be almost impossible to contain new infections and maintain manageable transmission as new variants are spreading fast in the community.
The World Health Organisation has also recommended that governments avoid implementing lockdowns to manage Covid-19 due to their devastating consequences.
We have to come to terms with a long haul, difficult journey ahead.
We need stronger and disciplined whole government society approaches to battle virus.
We have to learn to protect ourselves and live with Covid-19 while continuing to build health protection.
We urge the government to focus on Covid-19 pandemic management because trying to do both (saving lives and livelihood) is impossible and extremely challenging.
Even as we reach herd immunity, ongoing surveillance, booster vaccines, and other measures may be needed.
Lee Heng Guie is Socio Economic Research Centre executive director. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.
Source: https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2021/08/03/is-the-lockdown-worse-than-the-disease