
Image credit: Malay Mail
KUALA LUMPUR (Aug 12): The Socio-Economic Research Centre (SERC) warns Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth will slow to 3.5%-4% in the second half of 2025 due to uncertainty over US tariffs affecting exports.
However, full-year growth is still expected to reach 4% — within Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM)’s projection range of 4%-4.8% — supported by strong domestic demand, private consumption and investment, said SERC executive director Lee Heng Guie at a briefing.
Between 2021 and June 2025, the Malaysian Investment Development Authority (Mida) approved 3,494 manufacturing projects, with 86.4% already operating. Lee is optimistic about private investment thanks to ongoing initiatives like the New Industrial Master Plan 2030, National Energy Transition Roadmap, National Semiconductor Strategy and the 13th Malaysia Plan (2026-2030).
He warned that rising costs and higher sales tax may affect consumer spending but said steady wage growth, a stable job market and cash aid programmes like Sumbangan Tunai Rahmah will support households. The labour force participation rate was 70.8% in June 2025, showing a stable job market.
Lee calls for measures to boost Malaysia’s competitiveness and ease pressures on businesses, including cutting the corporate tax rate from 24% to 22% and raising the SME tax threshold to RM2 million at 15%. He also suggests lowering service tax on new services from 6%-8% to 4% for the first two years.
He noted that Malaysia’s current 24% corporate tax is higher than neighbours like Singapore (17%) and Vietnam (20%), and urged the government to create a business-friendly environment, warning that rising costs and taxes could burden companies, especially SMEs.
Malaysia’s GDP grew 4.4% in 1Q2025 and 5.1% in 2024.
Lee expects Bank Negara Malaysia to keep the overnight policy rate at 2.75% until year-end, with possible cuts in 2026 if growth slows.
He forecasts the ringgit to trade at RM4.2 against the US dollar by the end of 2025. Currently, the ringgit trades at 4.2330 and has gained 5.4% against the dollar this year.
Source: https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/766204