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KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia's 2024 gross domestic product (GDP) advance estimate read 5.1 per cent, within the official projection and MARC Ratings' forecast.

MARC said this sustained growth was primarily driven by robust domestic demand, including strong consumer spending, and a resilient services sector.

"Overall business activity remained healthy, supported by a sharp 16.9 per cent rise in exports in December. The strong overall exports, despite a slight decline in exports to China, reflected the diversification of trading partners," the rating agency said in its monthly economic review.

MARC said foreign outflows from Malaysia's bond and equity markets continued throughout the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by concerns that President Donald Trump's tariff and fiscal policies would prove inflationary, leading to higher yields in US assets and attracting capital away from emerging markets.

However, Malaysia's foreign outflows slowed slightly in December compared to November. 

"The 10-year US Treasury yields and the Dollar Index retreated from their interim peak on Jan 13, as Trump implemented lower-than-expected tariffs of 10 per cent on China, somewhat easing inflation concerns for now.

"Concurrently, the US dollar-ringgit pair is expected to stabilise near the RM4.50 level," it added.

MARC said overall US interest rate expectations remain hawkish, with the US Federal Reserve's increased expectations of higher rates by end-2025 and end-2026, further supporting capital flows to US assets.

Expectations of US rate cuts have continued to lower, with financial markets pricing in just one to two rate cuts in 2025.

MARC believes Bank Negara Malaysia will maintain the overnight policy rate at three per cent in 2025, as any increase in the inflation rate is anticipated to be temporary amid healthy GDP growth.

Notably, Malaysia's inflation rate for 2025 is projected at 2.6 per cent, alongside sustained GDP growth of 5.0 per cent, the firm said.

Source: https://www.nst.com.my/business/economy/2025/02/1171137/advanced-gdp-growth-estimates-51pc-within-marcs-forecast