
PETALING JAYA: Malaysia is among the Asia-Pacific countries that may benefit from the competition over trade and technology between China and the US which continues to disrupt supply chains, said Moody’s Investors Service.
The credit rating agency said the ongoing US-China competition presents opportunities for economies with strong manufacturing bases and good infrastructure, such as Malaysia (A3 stable), Vietnam (Ba2 stable), and Thailand (Baa1 stable).
“An escalation of military conflicts in the Middle East also poses supply chain risks,” it said in a research note.
Moody’s said a downshift in China’s (A1 negative) economic growth rate and a cyclical slowdown in the US (Aaa negative) will weigh on Asia-Pacific’s credit conditions in 2024.
“Peaking inflation globally will provide space for monetary tightening cycles to slow, but financial conditions will remain difficult for the weakest rated issuers. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks will continue to shape business decisions,” it added.
Moody’s also forecasted a structural shift in Asia-Pacific’s growth trajectory.
“We project the weighted average of real gross domestic product growth for the 25 sovereigns in Asia-Pacific to decelerate to 3.6% in 2024 from 4.4% in 2023, reflecting the slowdown in China and broadly lacklustre global economic conditions, including the cyclical slowdown in the US,” it said.
Moody’s said the downshift in China’s growth trajectory, reflecting a continued emphasis on domestic rebalancing as well as the property sector slowdown, will spill over in the region through a number of transmission channels, such as trade in goods and services, commodity prices, and investment.
“Growth rates in Asia-Pacific and Asia-Pacific ex-China are now likely to converge, reflecting the lower growth impetus from China.
“However, the region will continue to expand faster than most other regions even as growth decelerates in 2024,” it added.
Source: https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/business/2024/02/05/malaysia-to-benefit-from-us-china-competition-says-moodys/