[KUALA LUMPUR] Malaysia’s exports rose 15.6 per cent year on year to RM130.2 billion (S$40 billion) in November, driven by higher exports of electrical and electronic (E&E) products, refined petroleum and liquified natural gas.
This was slightly higher than October’s 15 per cent growth, and also exceeded the 13.2 per cent forecast in a Reuters poll of eight economists.
Imports also grew 15.6 per cent year on year, reaching RM107.9 billion, according to data released by the Department of Statistics Malaysia on Monday (Dec 19). This was below the forecast of 20.9 per cent in the Reuters poll.
Malaysia’s trade surplus widened to RM22.3 billion, similarly up 15.6 per cent year on year and also 23.5 per cent higher than October’s figure of RM18 billion.
Barclays economist Brian Tan attributed this to a rebound in electronics exports and a fall in imports. Malaysia’s imports have been trending downwards for three consecutive months, mainly due to declining imports of capital goods in the industrial transport equipment segment, he added.
He noted that capital goods of this segment jumped to RM2.2 billion in October – from RM1.4 billion in September – before plunging to just RM58 million in November, though it is expected to bounce back in December.
Malaysia has recorded double-digit year-on-year growth in total trade for 22 consecutive months, and in exports for 16 straight months. But economists expect the pace to ease in the coming months due to global headwinds.
UOB senior economist Julia Goh expects regional export performance to slow as demand softens amid a global tech downcycle. “As global economic indicators continue to flag rising recession risks for major economies in 2023, we maintain our cautious outlook for Malaysia’s exports,” she said in a note on Dec 19.
UOB forecasts full-year export growth of just 1.5 per cent in 2023, down sharply from an estimated growth of 26 per cent in 2022.
On a monthly basis, exports, imports and total trade all fell: by 1 per cent, 4.9 per cent and 2.8 per cent, respectively.
From January to November, Malaysia’s total trade was up nearly 30 per cent year on year to RM2.6 trillion. This was underpinned by the expansion in both exports – up 27.2 per cent to RM1.4 trillion – and imports, up 33.3 per cent. The trade surplus edged up by 2.6 per cent to RM227.9 billion.
In November, exports of manufactured goods – nearly 85 per cent of total exports – grew by 15 per cent year on year to RM110.2 billion. This segment also recorded double-digit growth for 16 consecutive months, mainly driven by E&E products as well as petroleum products.
Exports of mining goods, which accounted for 8 per cent of total exports, surged close to 63 per cent to RM10.4 billion, led by higher exports of liquified gas and crude petroleum.
Agriculture goods, around 6.8 per cent of total exports, declined by 11.1 per cent to RM8.87 billion, due to lower exports of palm oil and palm oil-based products.
In November, trade with Asean countries contributed nearly 27 per cent to Malaysia’s total trade, up 11.6 per cent year on year to RM63.5 billion.
Singapore and China were both the biggest export destinations and import sources. Exports to Singapore represented close to 17 per cent of Malaysia’s total exports, while China accounted for 14.5 per cent.
The export value to Singapore increased 36.3 per cent to RM22 billion, driven by higher demand for E&E, petroleum products as well as optical and scientific equipment. Exports to China rose 9.2 per cent to RM18.9 billion on higher exports of E&E products, liquified natural gas and chemical products.
For imports, China accounted for 22.5 per cent and Singapore 10.1 per cent. Import value from China rose 17.1 per cent to RM24.3 billion, due to growing demand for E&E products, petroleum products, machinery, equipment and parts as well as chemical products. Malaysia’s imports from Singapore rose 16.3 per cent to RM1.5 billion, on higher imports of petroleum and E&E products.
Source: https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/malaysias-exports-156-november-above-economists-forecasts